Haryana Elections 2024: The BJP’s Hat-Trick, Congress’s Heartburn, and Rahul Gandhi’s Crisis

When the dust settled over the Haryana battlefield on October 8, 2024, the story wasn’t just about who won; it was about how the underdog flipped the script, leaving pundits scratching their heads and Congress clutching at straws. It was a tale full of twists, false starts, and some classic Haryana hustling as BJP pulled off a third consecutive win in the state. While Congress had been basking in the glow of favorable exit polls, predicting a comfy anti-incumbency ride to power, the reality was more sobering – with the BJP cruising past the majority mark, leaving Congress to make sense of its missteps.

The Reality Check: Congress’s Game Plan Backfires

With BJP clinching over 50 seats and Congress managing just 35, the defeat stung, especially considering the hype. The Congress strategy revolved around the Jat vote, a risky gamble that backfired spectacularly as BJP not only consolidated its non-Jat base but also chipped away at Congress’s Jat strongholds. Rohtak, Sonepat, Jind – the so-called Jat bastions – didn’t exactly roll out the red carpet for Bhupinder Singh Hooda, the Congress’s old warhorse, who led the charge. In retrospect, banking on Hooda felt like an outdated, overplayed card​.

Let’s face it: if the Congress brand strategy was anti-incumbency, then BJP’s was 'survival of the fittest,' and boy, did they work those muscles! The saffron team didn’t just ride the storm; they weathered it with a blend of smart candidate reshuffling, recalibrated policies (think OBC reservation changes), and door-to-door engagement that rivaled even the most persistent salesmen. Meanwhile, Congress was busy squabbling internally, with infighting spilling over and loyalists jostling for space. Hooda may have wielded considerable clout, but his presence didn’t exactly scream “fresh start.” Kumari Selja, Congress’s sidelined Dalit leader, was left to watch from the sidelines when the campaign could’ve desperately used her appeal to non-Jat and Dalit voters​.

Rahul Gandhi’s Image: Taking a Hit or Finding His Voice?

As the election drubbing settled in, questions inevitably zeroed in on Rahul Gandhi’s leadership. The Congress’s repeated reliance on the same old faces, in this case, Hooda, only served to highlight its hesitancy to embrace change – a problem Rahul’s Bharat Jodo Yatra was supposed to address. While his speeches about empowering the OBC community and a caste census resonated at a national level, on Haryana’s ground zero, they fell flat, drowned out by BJP’s effective caste-based micro-targeting.

Rahul's push for a broader alliance with AAP and other INDIA partners was shot down by the state’s power brokers, a costly misjudgment. Had he been able to project a new, unifying face, like Selja, whose appeal extended beyond Jat lines, the Congress might have been able to stir up some real excitement. Instead, the over-reliance on Hooda’s Jat-centric campaign limited the party’s reach, especially in a state where non-Jat votes played the decisive role. Rahul’s image as a transformational leader has taken a hit, and if Congress doesn’t recalibrate its strategy soon, the "Renaissance Rahul" narrative could lose momentum as fast as it began​.

The Missing Non-Jat Factor: Congress’s Blunder

Let’s talk brass tacks – non-Jat communities make up a significant slice of Haryana’s electorate, particularly the OBCs, who hold over 40% of the vote share. While Rahul talked about OBC empowerment, Congress failed to present any strong OBC leaders in the state. On the other hand, BJP’s Chief Minister Nayab Singh Saini, a prominent OBC figure, became the embodiment of this community’s aspirations. The Congress’s obsession with playing the Jat card left non-Jat communities cold, pushing them straight into BJP’s open arms.

Selja, with her Dalit background and inclusive appeal, could’ve been the face that broke the mold, especially when BJP was cornering the OBC vote. The reluctance to promote her as the face of the campaign speaks volumes about Congress’s inability to navigate caste dynamics effectively. Hooda’s prominence only cemented the impression that Congress was a party for Jats by Jats, leaving non-Jat votes to trickle away. The impact of sidelining non-Jat communities was felt not just in the defeat, but in the way it reinforced BJP’s narrative of Congress being an exclusive club​.

Impact Beyond Haryana: What Does This Mean for Maharashtra?

The fallout from Haryana’s elections will ripple well beyond its borders, setting the tone for upcoming state polls, including the heavyweight showdown in Maharashtra. There, the Congress-NCP alliance will have to contend with the formidable BJP-Sena combo. But if Rahul Gandhi’s leadership doesn’t inspire confidence within his own ranks, what hope is there to convince voters of a viable alternative? The message from Haryana is crystal clear: old formulas are broken, and the face of change needs to be more than just talk – it has to be a demonstrable shift in strategy.

The Maharashtra elections will also see caste politics come to the fore, much like Haryana. With Maratha and OBC interests at play, Congress will need to learn from its recent mistakes and project diverse leadership across community lines. If the party continues to double down on entrenched leadership, it risks alienating crucial voter groups. A more dynamic approach that brings in new faces and builds cross-caste alliances could help the Congress regain its footing and avoid another electoral fiasco.

The Last Word: Time to Reset, Revamp, and Reclaim

Haryana’s 2024 election was a wake-up call for Congress, a clear sign that the old playbook needs shredding. The BJP may have survived anti-incumbency for the third time in a row, but its victory was not without vulnerabilities that Congress could exploit—if it gets its act together. A revamped leadership, a balanced caste representation, and strategic alliances are not just optional; they are essential. With Maharashtra looming large on the horizon, Rahul Gandhi must steer the ship away from past mistakes and boldly embrace change, or else risk sinking with the same old baggage.

In Haryana, the game was not just about votes but about narratives – and right now, BJP’s story is the one readers are buying.

Image courtsey: ecoomic times